基于土地利用变化的庆阳市碳排放效应分析
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国家自然科学基金(42075120);甘肃农业大学学科建设基金(GAU-XKJS-2018-216)


Analysis of carbon emission effect in Qingyang based on land use change
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    摘要:

    为了促进区域高效节能减排、加速低碳城市建设,基于庆阳市2005—2020年4期数据,采用土地利用动态变化分析、土地利用转移矩阵、碳排放动态变化分析、碳排放风险分析及灰色关联度分析等方法,剖析土地利用模式与碳排放效应时空演变及其内在关联。结果表明:庆阳市2005—2020年的土地利用结构由单一用途向多元化格局转变,其中耕地资源明显缩减,累计减少面积约2 752.52 km2;净碳排放由2005年的3.6×106 t增至2015年的4.6×106 t,再由2015年的4.6×106 t降至2020年的4.3×106 t,呈现先增后减的趋势,碳源碳汇容量先扩后缩,但碳排放风险与碳足迹压力持续上升,碳足迹压力指数由2005年的3.08万t升至2020年的3.63万t,且市区碳排放量呈西北高、东部低分布;土地利用类型与碳排放量的平均关联度逐年变化,建设用地关联最显著,高达1.00,林地次之,为0.98。研究可为庆阳市碳排放管理与土地利用规划提供科学依据与创新视角。

    Abstract:

    To promote efficient energy conservation and emission reduction in the region and accelerate the construction of low-carbon cities, based on four sets of data of Qingyang from 2005 to 2020, methods such as land-use dynamic change analysis, land-use transfer matrix, carbon-emission dynamic change analysis, carbon-emission risk analysis, and grey correlation analysis were adopted to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of land-use patterns and carbon-emission effects and their internal relationships.The results show that from 2005 to 2020 in Qingyang, the land-use structure shifted from a single-use pattern to a diversified one. Cultivated land resources decreased significantly, with a cumulative reduction of about 2 752.52 km2. Net carbon emissions rose from 3.6×106 tons in 2005 to 4.6×106 tons in 2015, and then decreased to 4.3×106 tons in 2020, showing a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. The capacity of carbon sources and sinks first expanded and then shrank. However, the carbon-emission risk and carbon-footprint pressure continued to rise. The carbon-footprint pressure index increased from 30 800 tons in 2005 to 36 300 tons in 2020. Moreover, carbon emissions in the urban area were higher in the northwest and lower in the east. The average correlation between land types and carbon emissions changed year by year. Construction land had the most significant correlation, reaching 1.00, followed by forest land with a correlation of 0.98.This study can provide scientific basis and innovative perspective for carbon-emission management and land-use planning in Qingyang.

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李莺莺,盖艾鸿,赵鹏伟,李 淼,郭瑞鹏.基于土地利用变化的庆阳市碳排放效应分析[J].河北工业科技,2025,42(3):275-284

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  • 收稿日期:2024-12-23
  • 最后修改日期:2024-03-19
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-06-02
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